Macro
US July CPI hits 3.4% and core 2.5% as 9 forecasts sat in a 3.30%-3.40% band
The in-line print gives markets a fresh anchor for Fed pricing and leaves rate-sensitive assets watching the next policy cue.
US July CPI rose 3.4% year over year and 0.1% month over month, while core CPI increased 2.5% annually and 0.2% on the month. All of those figures matched expectations, pointing to another step down in inflation without a surprise in either direction.
Ahead of the release, Wall Street forecasts for headline CPI were tightly clustered between 3.30% and 3.40%. Kalshi and Citi were at 3.30%, Goldman Sachs at 3.35%, and several others — including BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo — were centered at 3.40%.
For markets, the main takeaway is a calmer setup for Treasuries and other rate-sensitive assets, including big-cap tech, real estate and utilities. An in-line inflation report typically reinforces the view that the Fed can hold policy steady until the next batch of data shifts the outlook.
Traders and market commentators broadly framed the print as priced in, rather than a catalyst for a sharp repricing. The next focus is how policymakers read the still-sticky services component and whether upcoming data confirm the cooling trend.
Sources:tradingeconomics.comtradingeconomics.comforexfundamentals.com





