AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that lets ordinary smartphones connect directly to space, so people in dead zones—at sea, in deserts, or on planes—get cell service without buying special equipment. Think of it as a cell tower in orbit.
Money is not coming in yet: annual revenue was USD 0.07B in 2025, with a gross margin of 53.42% on that small base, but operating losses of USD -0.29B and net losses of USD -0.34B show the business is still pre-commercial and burning cash.
The moat is solid because the company holds a unique FCC license for space-based cellular spectrum and has early partnerships with major carriers like AT&T and Vodafone, giving it a head start that competitors like SpaceX's Starlink and Lynk Global would need
Sell (sector percentile 5) — value D-, growth A-, profitability D-, momentum C-, revisions C. Updated daily, sector-relative, identical for every user.
Key events, in time order
AT&T COO publicly congratulates ASTS on FCC test approval, hinting at closer collaboration on spectrum and D2D
ASTS joins SpaceX in 800MHz bid, bolstering satellite D2D competitive position
Per-company value modest, yet marks ASTS's entry into government contracts amid sector recovery
Vanguard bought 3M+ shares in Q2; Morgan Stanley also added; Motley Fool's subscriber math justifies $74 price
Motley Fool and Zacks revisit premium valuation vs deployment; Benzinga recaps split space earnings week
Q2 revenue of $31.5M misses estimates, but full-year guidance reaffirmed; stock rises
Piper reiterates $98 PT, Cantor raises to $90, citing network progress
UBS updates model, highlighting carrier-led model scaling; beta service possible with fewer satellites in 2026
UBS report and multiple social accounts reiterate ASTS's advantages in satellite communications, but no new facts.
Falcon 9 deployed on Aug 5; company targets 30 satellites by year-end
Funding and launch plan support deployment, but target slipped to 2027
Launch constraints delay target; BlueBirds 9/10 deployed, testing and funding progress
Q1 2026 revenue of $14.7 million, with full year 2026 guidance of $150 million to $200 million
None yet
None yet
ASTS is seen as a potential 10x investment by some, with bullish technical indicators and inclusion on a US investment watchlist. However, others note it's pricing in years of execution and has been below its 50-week moving average.
Main discussion
Different voices
The US is literally telling you its investment watchlist: -> American Mining ($400M into $SRL / $SREMF that I called back in March). -> Space Transportation: - $SPCX - $RKLB - $ASTS - $FEIM (smaller cap, slightly higher risk play) -> Drones: - $AVAV - $UMAC - $ONDS -> Polysilicon
I am just thinking how $ASTS Market Cap is only $20 Billion It is now my 4th largest position And could 10 X next. It is that easy
$ASTS (Algo Flow) - 🟢 Flow already there, price still climbing > bullish lean Flow already broke out to a fresh high for this window while price is still working its way back from the lows. Earlier in this same stretch, flow turned up first and price followed behind it — that sam
Space stocks are starting to split into two very different camps. $RKLB and $ASTS are the leaders, but already pricing in years of execution. $RDW, $VOYG and $LUNR have discounted growth and cheaper valuations. Are the Leaders premiums justified, or are the cheaper names the bett
In April 2025 $ASTS briefly fell below its 50 week moving average {orange box 1} 🟡It did not repeat that until a year later - and it was brief (2 weeks) {orange box 2} 🔴The current status of the situation: an extended stay below that level {orange box 3} Getting back above upper
$ASTS - dip for acceptance, then higher. Not my words, obviously. I'm quoting my quant Barky.
No comments yet.
Facts and opinions separated · All items sourced · Not investment advice
